Aris Spanos
3019 Pamplin Hall
(540) 231-7981
aris@vt.edu

Current Research Interests:
My current research interests include the philosophy and methodology of statistical inference and modeling; the foundations of statistics; data mining, pre-test bias and other methodological issues pertaining to econometric modeling; statistical adequacy, misspecification testing and respecification; resampling techniques and statistical adequacy; parametric vs. nonparametric modeling; reliability and precision of statistical inference; modeling speculative prices.

Selected Bibliography:

Books:
1. Statistical Foundations of Econometric Modeling, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1986, 708 pages.
2. Probability Theory and Statistical Inference: Econometric Modeling with Observational Data, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1999, 817 pages.

Selected published Papers:
1. “The Simultaneous Equations Model Revisited: Statistical Adequacy and Identification,” Journal of Econometrics, 1990, 44, 87-105.

2. “On Modeling Heteroskedasticity: the Student's t and Elliptical Linear Regression Models,” Econometric Theory, 1994, 10, 286-315.

3. “On Theory Testing in Econometrics: Modeling with Non-experimental Data,” Journal of Econometrics, 1995, 67, 189-226.

4. “On Normality and the Linear Regression Model”, Econometric Reviews, 1995, 14(2), 195-203.

5. “The Problem of Near-Multicollinearity Revisited: Erratic vs. Systematic Volatility”, (with Anya McGuirk), Journal of Econometrics, 2002, 108, 365-393.

6. “Statistical Adequacy and the Testing of Trend versus Difference Stationarity,” (with Elena Andreou), Econometric Reviews, 2003, 22, 217-237.

7. “Methodology in Practice: Statistical Misspecification Testing” (with D. G. Mayo), Philosophy of Science, 2004, 71, 1007-1025.

8. "Severe Testing as a Basic Concept in a Neyman-Pearson Philosophy of Induction," [with D. G. Mayo] The British Journal of the Philosophy of Science, 2006, 57: 323-357.

9. “Where Do Statistical Models Come From? Revisiting the Problem of Specification,”
pp. 98-119, The Second Erich L. Lehmann Symposium, Lecture Notes-Monograph Series, vol. 49, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2006.

10. “Econometrics in Retrospect and Prospect,” pp. 3-58 in Mills, T.C. and K. Patterson, New Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, vol. 1, MacMillan, London, 2006.

11. “The Student's t Dynamic Linear Regression: Re-examining Volatility Modeling,” (with M. Heracleous), Advances in Econometrics, 2006, 20, 289-319.

12. “Revisiting the Omitted Variables Argument: Substantive vs. Statistical Adequacy,” Journal of Economic Methodology, 2006, 13: 179-218.

13. “The Instrumental Variables Method revisited: On the Nature and Choice of Optimal Instruments,” pp. 34-59 in Refinement of Econometric Estimation and Test Procedures, ed. by G. D. A. Phillips and E. Tzavalis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007.

14. “Philosophical Scrutiny of Evidence of Risks: From Bioethics to Bioevidence,” [with D. G. Mayo], Philosophy of Science, 2006, 73 (5), 803-816.

15. “Curve-Fitting, the Reliability of Inductive Inference and the Error-Statistical Approach,” Philosophy of Science, 2007, 74: 1046-1066.

16. “Testing for Nonstationarity Using Maximum Entropy Resampling: A Misspecification Testing Perspective,” [with A. Koutris and M. Heracleous], Econometric Reviews, 2008, 27, 363-384.

17. “Statistics and Economics," pp. 1129-1162 in the New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd ed., 2008, Eds. S. N. Durlauf and L. E. Blume. Palgrave Macmillan, London.

18. “Linear vs. Log-linear Unit-Root Specification: An Application of Mis-specification Encompassing,” [with D. F. Hendry and J. J. Reade], Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2008, 70: 829-847.

19. “Revisiting Error-Autocorrelation Correction: Common Factor Restrictions and Granger Non-Causality,” [with A. McGuirk], Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2009, 71: 259-282.

Forthcoming and Working Papers:

  1. “The Discovery of Argon: A Case for Learning from Data”. pdf
  2. “Misspecification, Robustness and the Reliability of Inference: the simple t-test in the presence of Markov dependence”. pdf
  3. “Revisiting the foundations of unit root testing: the AR(1) model does not nest a unit root” (with A. McGuirk) pdf
  4. “Revisiting the Statistical Foundations of Panel Data Models” pdf
  5. “The Exchange (or Two Envelope) Paradox Revisited,” pdf
  6. “Revisting the Welch Uniform Model: A case for the conditionality principle?” pdf
  7. “Error Statistics”. pdf
  8. “Student’s t Autoregressive Model with Dynamic Heteroskedasticity” pdf
  9. “Philosophy of Econometrics,” Philosophy of Economics in the Handbook of the Philosophy of Science, Elsevier (editors) D. Gabbay, P. Thagard, and J. Woods, forthcoming 2009. pdf
  10. "Theory Testing in Economics and the Error Statistical Perspective," forthcoming in Error and Inference, edited by D. G. Mayo and A. Spanos, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2009. pdf
  11. "Fixed vs. Random Effects Panal Data Models: Revisiting the Omitted Latent Variables and Individual Heterogeneity Arguments," Virginia Tech working paper. pdf
  12. "Akaike-type Information Criteria and the Reliability of Inference: Model Selection vs. Statistical Model Specification," forthcoming, Journal of Econometrics. pdf
  13. "Using the Residuals to Test the Validity of a Statistical Model: Revisiting Sufficiency and Ancillarity," Virginia Tech working paper. pdf
  14. "Model-based Induction and the Frequentist Interpretation of Probability," Virginia Tech working paper. pdf
  15. "Review of the book by S. T. Ziliak and D. N. McCloskey, entitled: The Cult of Statistical Significance", 2008.
  16. "Confidence and Consonance Intervals, P-value and Ominbus Curves vs. Post-Data Severity Evaluations"
  17. "Is Frequentist Testing Vulnerable to the Base-Rate Fallacy?"